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Economic Outlook

Staff -- Converting Magazine, 7/1/2001

The estimated dollar value of manufacturers' shipments of consumer nondurable goods increased by 0.4% between Mar. and Apr., following a sharp 1.3% decline the month before. The value of new orders to manufacturers of nondurable consumer products also increased by 0.4% over the latest month, so there's a modest amount of new demand still out there despite the general uneasiness that Americans feel about our current economy. Growth has slowed dramatically during the past six months, though. Between 99 and 00, the value of all nondurable consumer goods shipped by U.S. manufacturers increased by an exceptional 9.8%. However, the estimated value of Apr. 01 consumer nondurable shipments was only 2.3% above the total for the same month of last year.

Converting's exclusive PGPI rose a slight 0.1% between Mar.-Apr., and stands 1.9% higher now than during Apr. 00. Average prices for 9 of the 16 components that make up the PGPI rose over the month, while another 6 recorded declines, and the cosmetics products group showed no price movement. The sharpest over-the-month price increase was posted in the household flatware group, where the price index surged 1.8%. The monthly price increases were almost totally offset by declines in prices for shortening/cooking oils, household appliances, household furniture, confectionery products, bakery products, and OTC drugs. Higher fuel costs will continue to be passed along in the prices of some PGPI components; a slow-growth U.S. economy should dampen any inflationary pressures for the balance of 2001.

End-Market IndicatorsActual 2000Q4/00Q1/01Q2/01*Q3/01*
Manufacturers' Shipments (in billions of dollars)% Change from Year-Ago
All Food Products438.52.04.73.73.1
Meat, Poultry, Fish129.23.97.36.64.9
Beverages65.14.43.22.32.9
Dairy Products60.9-1.66.07.45.8
Pharmaceuticals & Medicines121.816.810.85.77.7
All Consumer Nondurables1,117.77.33.52.22.9
Retail Sales (in billions of dollars)
All Retail Stores3,231.75.12.72.43.0
Grocery Stores457.94.35.23.33.7
Eating & Drinking Places306.54.8 5.02.83.4
Drug & Proprietary Stores131.910.013.39.58.7
* Forecast Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

 

Behind The Numbers

Growth in converting product end-markets slowed—but remained solidly positive—during the early months of 2001. The value of shipments from U.S. manufacturers of the vast array of consumer nondurable goods increased 3.5% between Q1 00 and the first three months of this year, while retail sales nationwide grew at an annualized rate of 2.7% during Jan.-Mar. 01. Both of these rates of growth were only about half-as-strong as those recorded over Q4 00. The value of overall food product shipments was 4.2% greater over the first-third of 01 than during Jan.-Apr. 00. And shipments of pharmaceuticals/medicines were worth 5.7% more during the first four months of 01 than over the same period in 00. Higher unemployment, lower consumer confidence, and a slower rate of growth in household income will limit gains in consumer product shipments and retail sales this year. But the overall consumer sector should remain safely above water, while most business-investment-related sectors continue to sink.

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