Economic Outlook
Staff -- Converting Magazine, 7/1/2001
The estimated dollar value of manufacturers' shipments of consumer nondurable goods increased by 0.4% between Mar. and Apr., following a sharp 1.3% decline the month before. The value of new orders to manufacturers of nondurable consumer products also increased by 0.4% over the latest month, so there's a modest amount of new demand still out there despite the general uneasiness that Americans feel about our current economy. Growth has slowed dramatically during the past six months, though. Between 99 and 00, the value of all nondurable consumer goods shipped by U.S. manufacturers increased by an exceptional 9.8%. However, the estimated value of Apr. 01 consumer nondurable shipments was only 2.3% above the total for the same month of last year.
Converting's exclusive PGPI rose a slight 0.1% between Mar.-Apr., and stands 1.9% higher now than during Apr. 00. Average prices for 9 of the 16 components that make up the PGPI rose over the month, while another 6 recorded declines, and the cosmetics products group showed no price movement. The sharpest over-the-month price increase was posted in the household flatware group, where the price index surged 1.8%. The monthly price increases were almost totally offset by declines in prices for shortening/cooking oils, household appliances, household furniture, confectionery products, bakery products, and OTC drugs. Higher fuel costs will continue to be passed along in the prices of some PGPI components; a slow-growth U.S. economy should dampen any inflationary pressures for the balance of 2001.
| End-Market Indicators | Actual 2000 | Q4/00 | Q1/01 | Q2/01* | Q3/01* |
| Manufacturers' Shipments (in billions of dollars) | % Change from Year-Ago | ||||
| All Food Products | 438.5 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
| Meat, Poultry, Fish | 129.2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.9 |
| Beverages | 65.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| Dairy Products | 60.9 | -1.6 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 5.8 |
| Pharmaceuticals & Medicines | 121.8 | 16.8 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 7.7 |
| All Consumer Nondurables | 1,117.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| Retail Sales (in billions of dollars) | |||||
| All Retail Stores | 3,231.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Grocery Stores | 457.9 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Eating & Drinking Places | 306.5 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| Drug & Proprietary Stores | 131.9 | 10.0 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 8.7 |
| * Forecast Source: U.S. Department of Commerce | |||||
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