Folding-carton shipments were off 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2000. The good news, however, is that the paperboard packaging industry may be at, or near, the bottom of a down cycle, says Steve Dunning, corp. planning manager for Smurfit-Stone Container Corp.

Dunning presented a variety of industry trends at the PPC annual meeting March 18-20 in Chicago. Looking forward, he predicts a 0.2 percent growth in folding-carton shipments this year. Even better, Dunning forecasts a 2.1 percent increase next year and 2.2 percent in 2003. Dollar volume should reach about $8.77 billion in 2001. "We are not forecasting a recession," Dunning emphasizes.

Creating customer loyalty was the focus of the PPC presentation by Donald Neal, senior vp of Rapp Collins Worldwide. Sixty-five percent of business comes from existing satisfied customers, and a 5 percent increase in customer retention can boost profits 25 to 125 percent, Neal says.