Economic Outlook

Staff -- Converting Magazine, 3/1/2001

The estimated dollar value of manufacturers' shipments of nondurable goods declined by 0.2% between Nov. and Dec. The value of new orders to nondurable goods manufacturers decreased by a slightly steeper 0.3 over the latest month. The estimated value of Dec.00 nondurable shipments was 2.7% above the total for the final month of 99, while the over-the-year gain in orders was a slightly stronger 2.8%. For the year as a whole (based on preliminary estimates) the value of nondurable shipments during 00 was up 7.0% from the 99 total (in current dollars--not adjusted for inflation), while orders grew at a 6.9% annual rate. The numbers show that the orders slowdown during the final months of last year will result in a smaller gain in shipments during 01.

Revised, and final, price-index data was released by the U.S. Labor Dept. during late-Jan., and it showed more significant moderation in packaged goods products inflation than previously estimated. Converting 's exclusive packaged goods price index (PGPI) is now seen to have declined by 0.1% between Nov. and Dec., instead of the previously estimated 0.1% increase. Average prices for 7 of the 16 components fell over Dec., while another 7 recorded prices increases, and 1 was flat. Increasing at significant rates were the averages for alcoholic beverages (+1.3%) and household flatware (+0.5%). Between Dec. 99 and Dec. 00, average prices increased for 12 of the 16 PGPI index components, and overall PGPI rose 2.0%. Packaging product price inflation pressures eased over the final months of 00.

* Forecast Source: U.S. Department of Commerce