Any good converter worth his or her sales and marketing salt can rattle off the advantages of flexible packaging over rigid containers in a heartbeat: lower costs for raw materials and shipping; market performance versus traditional glass jars or metal cans; and source reduction for the same product protection. It is just these characteristics, and others, that will help drive the growth of plastic-film demand in the US, and particularly its application for packaging, through the rest of the decade.

Overall, domestic plastic-film demand is forecast to increase 2.6 percent a year to 15.2 billion pounds in 2010, valued at $12 billion (resin cost only), according to a new study by Cleveland-based market researcher The Freedonia Group, Inc. (www.freedoniagroup.com). Total plastic film demand (including resins, additives, processing and other costs) will expand 4.5 percent annually to $28.6 billion.

Among various resins, low-density polyethylene (LDPE) will remain the leading film, accounting for 64 percent of the US total in 2010, with polypropylene (PP) presenting the best opportunities (see chart). Average film prices are expected to moderate following the steep price increases of 2004-2006, Freedonia predicts, which were caused primarily by spikes in raw material and energy costs.

LDPE will remain the largest plastic-film resin based on its competitive cost structure, versatility and opportunities in areas such as produce and snack packaging, stretch and shrink-wrap, and trash bags. Demand will rise from 8.5 billion pounds last year to 9.7 billion pounds in 2010. Slightly faster increases are expected for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) film (2.9 percent annual growth) due to good growth in areas such as baked-goods packaging and retail bags, the study says.

PP film demand will expand the fastest, climbing from 1.3 billion pounds in 2005 to 1.5 billion pounds in 2010, spurred by produce, grain mill, dairy product and other food packaging applications. Polyester film demand will decline 2.2 percent a year through 2010 due to rapidly falling sales of photographic film and magnetic tape. On the other hand, greater polyester opportunities are anticipated in food packaging, particularly snack foods, confections and frozen food via polyester's higher barrier properties, Freedonia forecasts. Polyvinyl chloride film demand will advance marginally due to slower red meat consumption and competition from polyolefin films.

Packaging made up nearly three-quarters of all US plastic film use in 2005. The best growth is expected in secondary packaging applications such as stretch and shrink-wrap, and retail bags. Food packaging will grow at above-average rates, pushed by continued expansion in fresh produce, confectionery and frozen foods, the study says.