After being battered by the double whammy of post 9–11 economic recession and a rapid shift toward internet-driven e-commerce, the US printing industry appears to be recovering nicely. And among the hottest growth areas are printed packaging and converting. This according to industry analyst and Rochester Institute of Technology professor emeritus Frank Romano.

Romano spoke Sept. 13 on the "State of Printing and Converting in the US" to an audience of about 300 industry professionals during the PRINT® 05 and CONVERTING^SM 05 trade show in Chicago. While the number of printing firms has declined about 11 percent since 2000, employment has leveled off and revenues are surging—$161 billion last year—nearly the rate of four years ago.

Romano forecasts about a 15 percent growth rate for all types of printing in the 2004–2008 period. Digital print will rise the fastest (almost 20 percent); offset and flexo will also show gains but at a significantly slower pace. He predicts a continued marked decline for gravure printing.

In light of his audience, Romano reviewed the status of all the major commercial printing categories but much of his presentation focused on a positive picture for printed packaging. "It has no electronic competitor," he explains, and as such, it will have the second-fastest growth (after advertising) in this decade. The volume of printed packaging will rise from 17.9 million tons of paper in 2001 to 19.9 million tons in 2010, Romano estimates.

"Converting and packaging are natural markets for commercial printers," he says, both as an opportunity for printers and a competitive warning to traditional converters. "More tags and labels are printed by commercial houses than by converters," Romano says, and "almost as much folding-carton printing is done by commercial printers as by converters."

Looking ahead at several package printing and downstream converting processes, Romano made various predictions. Among them:

• By 2010, two-thirds of all packaging graphics printed with inkjet will be printed on flatbed equipment rather than roll-fed systems.
• RFID will replace barcodes. By 2010, 60 percent of RFIDs will be printed in-line with color graphics; growing to 95 percent by 2015.
• Twelve percent of package printing is now done with "hybrid" technology or combinations of methods (flexo, screen, digital). This will grow to 34 percent as digital is integrated into the production process.
• Ninety-nine percent of packaging production will be done in-line (print, emboss, die-cut in one pass) by 2012.
• In-line finishing will be a necessity. By 2010, 65 percent of die-cut materials will use laser finishing.
• Global branding will require multiple languages. By 2008, 11 percent of packaging will be customized by digital.