Among the economic stats I mentioned in last month's Viewpoint was the declining unemployment rate, which dropped again to 5.9 percent in November. With US business—and manufacturing—appearing to make a long-awaited rebound (see p. 36), New York economist Richard Bayer has distilled several trends in the labor market, and I'd like to show how a few will impact your converting operation in 2004.

1. The job market will be hot again in about nine months. According to the New York City Training and Employment Coalition, an expected labor shortage will hit in about 18 months. This shortage is a real threat. Did you learn anything from the last labor shortage of the late 1990s? Start now to make sure your workers have the training and resources to handle the workload before new employees join the firm.

2. Teenage unemployment remains high at about 16 percent. A significant portion of an entire generation will come to your door with little or no work experience. Are you prepared to give these young adults their first job or will you send them packing?

3. The days of the "War For Talent" will not return. The "war for talent" was a fad at some companies (during the labor shortage) where top talent was deemed worthy of bidding wars and outrageous salaries. Be ready instead to hire talented workers at their "real value." Can they bring in new business, help you reduce internal costs or raise productivity to be worth their salt? More than one survey we've reported on over the past year shows converters chiefly prize the opportunity to enter new markets as the best way to grow in 2004.

4. Think internal shifts (not firings) whenever possible. Urge your employees to be mobile as well as responsible for their own internal moves. When some departments need to cut back (shipping, say, through greater automation) while others experience growth (pressroom or bagmaking), moving good people around inside your business will reduce layoffs and help you keep valuable talent.

The unemployment rate does not include people who are unemployed but have also lost the will to job hunt. As the economy improves, more people will enter the race for jobs and thus it may appear unemployment is slow to improve.

But it will improve. Be prepared to handle the consequences of the 21st Century US manufacturing economy and its impact on jobs.

Our next Webcast E-conference: "Troubleshooting Baggy Webs," the first in our continuing series of technical Webcast seminars for 2004, will feature Web Works columnist David R. Roisum. Find out the latest tension-control methods to solve this common web-handling and converting problem—exclusively online via Converting. The event, set for Feb. 27, will run 90 mins. and registration is only $99. More info at www.convertingmagazine.com