Okay, I'm willing to take a leap of faith. I'm willing—after twice making forecasts and being disappointed—to agree again with Daryl Delano, our Economic Outlook columnist. The US economy will turn the corner in 2003 and show modest improvement in GDP—growing around 3 percent next year.

Other measures from the Federal Reserve Board and Labor and Commerce Depts. show hopeful signs that impact all of us as business managers. Namely, improved corporate profits (down 10 percent in 2001, rising 8 percent next year) and sustained consumer spending (about 3 percent in 2003) should finally give businesses the wherewithal to increase capital-equipment spending.

As added ammunition, interest rates will remain very low, Delano says. This not only will help accelerate consumer spending even further but also again bring on the long-awaited revival of business investment. And tied in with that, prices of most industrial supplies and equipment should rise only moderately next year (1.7 percent) as production capacity continues to exceed market demand, he says.

The next six months look brighter to the members of AIMCAL as well. In the group's first Business Outlook Survey, almost two-thirds of respondents believe a turnaround is due. Their evidence: increases in new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and delivery times.

So what's been holding up the recovery in the meantime? "It's probably not an oversimplification to say it comes down to one word: Saddam," explains Delano.

As we enter 2003, will we be forced to go to war with Iraq? The uncertainty of the situation is the core of continued low business and consumer confidence, and by extension, of deferred investment. Concerns focus on the impact that such a war would have on energy prices, inflation and interest rates.

Still, I'm hopeful and agree with Delano that "given the low state of current expectations," a string of positive developments next year might just lead to a euphoric rally.

During 2003, successful businesses will have to focus on the market opportunities more than the undeniable risks and dangers. There will always be things to concern, distract or otherwise "un-focus" us, as Delano says.

Converters might not have much control over what happens politically or militarily in the year ahead, but we can take positive steps to invest in the future success of our businesses.

Changing of the guard: With this issue, Skip Heintzelman offers his final "Narrow Web Niche" column for Converting. As a consulting technical editor, he's been providing answers to your roll-label converting questions since August 1995. Through more than 50 Q&As and a handful of longer technical pieces, Skip's covered every aspect of the label and narrow-web industry—substrates, adhesives, presses, finishing, economics and marketing.

Already retired for a few years as director of technical services at Engraph Label Group, Skip's decided to also make official his retirement from the ranks of Converting. We wish him well.