The estimated dollar value of manufacturers' shipments of consumer nondurable goods rose 0.8% between Dec. 01 and Jan. 02 of this year, following an even-stronger 1.1% increase the month before. Still, the total dollar value of consumer nondurable goods in 01 fell 0.4% short of the total for full-year 00. And during Jan. 02, total nondurable shipments were worth 3.8% less than during Jan. 01. The value of food products shipped soared 1.7% between Dec. and Jan. Shipments of meat/poultry/fish products increased by 0.5% during Jan, after just a 0.2% advance during the final month of 01. But after recording average monthly increases of 1.1% during Q4 01, beverage shipments plunged 2.3%. Dairy product shipments continued very strong with a 2.1% gain during Jan.02. But shipments of pharmaceuticals/medicines continued to fall, with a 2.3% loss in Jan. coming on the heels of a 1.9% decline in Dec. 01.

Converting's exclusive packaged goods price index (PGPI) rose by 0.4% between Dec. and Jan., following two consecutive flat months. This shouldn't be interpreted as an inflation sign, however. Our index can't be adjusted to account for "typical" seasonal influences, and a large number of companies pass along whatever price increases they think the market can absorb during the first month of the new year. So the Jan. increase is likely to reflect the accident of the calendar. More tellingly, our composite index still stood just 1.1% higher in Jan. 02 than during the first month of 01. Average prices for 11 of the 16 components that make up the composite PGPI measure increased over the month, three categories declined and the remaining two components (over-the-counter medicines and household flatware) were flat We continue to expect overall inflation in packaged goods prices to be very subdued throughout the first half of 02.