World demand for converted flexible packaging will grow 4.6 percent a year through 2005, surpassing 14 million metric tons, says a new study by The Freedonia Group, Inc. In terms of value, the Cleveland-based market re-searcher forecasts demand will climb even faster—up almost 7 percent a year to $53.5 billion.

While flex packs will continue to develop new applications, replace rigid containers, and expand its key markets, maturity in developed countries and material source reduction will limit volume gains, Freedonia says. Plastic films, which already account for more than 70 percent of global demand, will continue to make inroads at the expense of paper and foil materials. Polyethylene use will dominate, but the fastest growth will be for polypropylene and various high-barrier resins.

The world's emerging markets of Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East can expect the best growth in flex-pack demand. Freedonia forecasts a 7.2 percent annual rise for Asia/Pacific, and a 6.7 percent annual increase for the remainder of the developing world.

China, which already makes up 9 percent of world flex-pack demand, will log some of the strongest gains through 2005, surpassing Japan as the world's second-largest user of converted flex packs behind the U.S. India and Russia also have the potential for sustained double-digit annual demand growth, Freedonia says.

Conversely, advances in North America, Western Europe, Japan and Australia will be more subdued, the study reports. As we reported last month, converted flex-pack demand in the U.S. will slow from 2.4 percent annual growth in 1995-2000 to 2.2 percent a year from 2000-2005. Canada and Mexico will see demand slow from a 4.1 percent annual rate in 1995-2000 to 3.8 percent a year now through 2005.