The estimated dollar value of manufacturers' shipments of consumer nondurable goods increased 1.4% between Nov. and Dec. of 01, following a 2.4% decline the month before. However, despite this uptick, the year as a whole is one we'd probably rather forget. The value of nondurable shipments for all of 01 came up 0.4% short of the 00 total. Quite a comedown from the 9.8% increase recorded between 99 and 00. Total nondurable consumer good shipments during the final month of 01 were worth 4.4% less than in Dec. 00. The value of food products shipped rose by a slight 0.2% between Nov. and Dec., while the value of pharmaceuticals/medicines shipped fell 0.8%.

Converting's exclusive packaged goods price index (PGPI) held steady for the second month in a row during Dec. Thus, the index rose only a negligible 0.2% during Q4 01-clear evidence of the dampening impact that the current recession is having on inflation in the U.S. and global economies. Our composite index stood just 1.0% higher this past Dec. than during Dec. 00. Average prices for 7 of the 16 PGPI components increased between Nov. and Dec., five declined, and 4 product groups were flat. Between Dec. 00 and Dec. 01, average prices increased for 12 of 16 PGPI index components. We're likely to see average prices for nondurable consumer products bottom out during Q1 02.