With the rapid economic expansion of the 1990s now history, growth in the sales of converted flexible packaging is starting to slow, says a new study by The Freedonia Group Inc.

In the five-year period of 1995-2000, overall U.S. demand for flex packs (lbs of production) grew at an annual pace of 2.4 percent. That's projected to drop to an average yearly rate of 2.2 percent over the 2000-2005 time frame, according to the Cleveland-based market researcher. Production demand for plastic-based materials will continue to top the list, but growth will fall from 3.2 percent a year in 2000 to 2.8 percent in 2005. Demand for foil-based flex packs will drop from 1.2 percent a year in 2000 to only 0.9 percent three years hence.

Dollar value figures are another story, however, with higher percentage increases. Total U.S. flex pack sales reached $11.45 billion in 2000, the report says, via a 5.2 percent annual hike. Sales will keep climbing to $14.5 billion in 2005 with a slightly lower growth rate of 4.8 percent.

The market will advance through continued developments such as breathable films for fresh-cut produce and meats, reclosable standup pouches and microwaveable wraps. Value-added flex packs are also being used as a marketing tool to differentiate products on busy retail shelves, Freedonia says.

In the materials arena, polyethylene will remain the dominant film, although better growth is anticipated for polypropylene. Ethylene vinyl alcohol films will exhibit the best growth based on demanding barrier requirements, and cellophane is projected to continue its volume decline.

A bright spot in all this is the food-packaging market, which is forecast to rise 2.4 percent a year to 5.7 million lbs of converted materials in 2005. Flex pack's ability to provide a cost-effective means of protecting food is the main driver. Snacks, frozen foods and produce will yield the highest growth for flex packs based on market expansion, new product introductions, customer convenience and technological advances, the study says.