You can't blame a guy for trying. Back in February, I tried to put the economic slowdown into perspective, and get everyone to stop thinking a recession was inevitable. Well, unfortunately, while the overall economy has almost hit zero since then, it's also true that the manufacturing economy has fallen much farther.

Still, in my role as a trade-publication editor and advocate for the U.S. converting industry, I'll continue to be an optimist. How? By forecasting a turnaround in our business fortunes with a little help from a few outside expert sources.

For instance, AIMCAL's Quarterly Economic Report for Q2 2001, provided via the Concord, N.H.-based Institute for Trends Research, shows better times ahead.

On the positive side, inventories have dropped to 2.3 percent above year-ago levels; housing starts have gone up, signaling the start of a new business cycle; and the status of the Money Supply is a good sign for the 2002 economy.

Along with these trends, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is back up to levels of last fall.

Because these numbers are used to predict what will happen six months into the future, look for rosier business activity come next spring.

All that said, what can you do to not only survive until the recovery comes, but maybe even prosper? And not just over the next year but long-term? The answer: Get lean and mean.

Productivity, Inc., a Portland, Ore.-based consultancy has such a plan with its program of Value Stream Management. The eight-step system helps companies plan, map and sustain lean manufacturing practices. A much abbreviated description:

One—Management must be committed to a lean operation. Two—Choose a value stream (or all the steps involved in making a product). Three—Learn about lean. The goal is to cut waste from each step in the stream. While not a new concept, it's not been well applied. Four—Map out the current state of the process.

Five—Identify lean metrics with base numbers and proposed goals for each step. Six—Map the future state of the process. Seven—Create charts, assigning tasks based on a new, leaner process. Eight—Implement the plans to achieve the lean manufacturing.

No matter what you convert, the benefits of a lean operation are clear. Costs go down; leadtimes shorten; capacity increases; and work becomes safer and easier. Bottom line: Your business is more competitive, and that can mean prospering despite an economic slowdown.

For an education in the ground rules and some exposure to companies that live the lean life, check out Productivity's 2001 Conference on Lean Management Oct. 23-26 in Dearborn, Mich. Pre-event workshops teach the basic skills, followed by two days of case studies by companies such as R.R. Donnelly, Rhodia, Square D and Ford. For details, visit www.productivityinc.com.